← GA@AGC Abyssal Heaven Store Championships
Water FractalTier 2
at GA@AGC Abyssal Heaven Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 16.3% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 38.5% | -5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.8% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Water Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Neos | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Fractal of Refreshment, Turbo Charge. Losers more often ran: Frostbind.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Art of War | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |